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The Number of Coronavirus Cases In the US may be Double the Official Tally Shown

According to a new analysis, the Coronavirus had infected nearly 65 million people in the United States by early March 2021, or one out of every five people. The findings, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, reveal that nearly 60% of Coronavirus infections were uncounted at the time, adding to a growing body of evidence suggesting the pandemic’s true toll is significantly greater than official estimates.

 Jennifer Nuzzo, said, “It’s good to see people start estimating how far we potentially could be off.” Official Coronavirus counts don’t tell the whole storey, as scientists have long known. According to one analysis of life insurance applicants, the number of cases could have been twice as high as the official account, and another model estimated that global deaths were about double the recorded count.

However, the data available to them constrained each of these estimations. For pandemic modellers, this is a prevalent theme: Each of the three most well-known Coronavirus data sources has its own set of drawbacks. Because not everyone who was sick was tested or diagnosed, relying on the number of verified cases understates the true number of illnesses. Meanwhile, the test positivity rate tends to exaggerate genuine prevalence.

The number of deaths may aid researchers in working backwards to total infections, although they occur weeks after infections occur and provide little real-time information. Representative prevalence surveys, in which a random group of persons is selected for Coronavirus testing, are one potentially unbiased source. Irons and his colleagues used data from two random testing surveys conducted in Indiana and Ohio to calibrate a model they constructed using less-than-ideal data sources, including as deaths, confirmed cases, and tests completed.

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